Freddy Bouchet, ENS de Lyon et CNRS

Climate extremes and rare trajectories in astronomy computed using rare event algorithms and large deviation theory

I will discuss a set of recent developments in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics applied to climate and the solar system dynamics. The first application will be extreme heat waves as an example of rare events with huge impacts. Using a large deviation algortihm with a climate model (GCM), we were able to gain two orders of magnitude for the estimation of very rare events, and study phenomena that can not be studied otherwise. The second application will be the study of rare trajectories that change the structure of a planetary system. Their understanding involves large deviation and instanton theory.